The flyer token probability/rewards has been nerfed so hard its almost a non-factor. It is, however, possible to set up easy favor farms early on now.
Idk, 18 mantis off of a token definitely isn't terrible.
The probability also doesn't really matter when confronted with large amounts of gold though. I've had to spend 600 gold to get that flyer token multiple times, but it's easily worth it.
The problem is that as much as it's said that they're "almost non-factors", you see a BUNCH of griffon/manti nukes that were not only built by favor farming, they were made through tokens from the event.
A few people in my alliance have said they have several griffon/manti tokens saved as well-- and I can't even imagine how many people in Disney, who have both more gold spenders and heavier spenders, have the same.
Even smaller alliances like TOR have a bunch of people with solid non-harpy flier nukes already. I don't know who AAB is fighting atm, but I imagine you guys would've seen this trend as well by now.
Edit: I also want to mention that regardless of sharing an alliance, I definitely do not endorse this thread being made. Seems completely pointless and to make this thread as a leader of an alliance is a bit silly. It makes the entire alliance look bad if a leader pulls this sort of thing.