I guess it's time for me to do my first top 12. Keep in mind I've had a long break of Grepo (I'll not recognize as much names as you) and that all my predictions are just assumptions.
1. Picnic Bunnies - My alliance. Currently controling O44, topping all BP lists and one-o-highest average. If nothing goes wrong concerning leadership I don't see anyone taking us out soon. Swim.
2. Rabid - Core in North-West O55. Some of their members are a bit spread out. Slightly falling behind on BP and average, but looks solid concerning other factors. We've heard some news about a sabotage, which makes me doubt the quality of their leadership. Also, they're surrounded by other alliances. I give them a month to swim, my bet is that they'll sink then.
3. VoOdoO - Their core is mixed with that of Picnic Bunnies. They'll have a hard time fighting them off, personally I do not seem them pulling a trick. Spy reports show they are basically non-CQ-ready turtles, and they're completely falling behind on ABP. They'll be gone within a few weeks. Sink.
4. Empire of Death - Solid looking premade. Some fast growers and an empty core to start from. If any of the O55 alliances is going to stay around for long it'd be these guys. Only thing I do not like is that they're very spread out. I definately see these guys around in a few months. Swim.
5. HYDRA - Although this alliance doesn't look very well (Low ABP, low average, etc.) they do have O54 for their own, and a fairly nice core there. They pacted with any thread in that ocean so for now they're save. However, I don't think these guys will hold their head up for more than a month. Float for now.
6. SeeD - Spread out all across O55. Has a sister alliance, average BP, low average points and no members with 2 cities yet (not even one over 4k!). I guess this is the biggest real MRA this world is seeing. These guys will probably be gone soon. Sink. Like a rock.
7. Death From Above - Not sure what to expect of these guys. Their ABP is more than average and according to the link on their profile they're doing well on US42 - this might have a bad effect on their online times on this world. They're scattered across four oceans and do not have a very clustered core. They are, however, the only real contestors in ocean 45. Float for now, we'll see what these guys can do.
8. Chiguanas - These guys have proven they are worthy players on other worlds. They're very well clustered and have the highest average points of all alliances, not to mention their high ABP-rank. Their biggest threat will probably be Rabid, but actually I think the "Chigs" can take them down. If they do, they'll most definately be a real competitor for a crown. Swim.
9. Reborn Basterds - Scattered across all four core oceans. Bad average, and nowhere to be found in the BP lists. Although their profile states they have experience, I guess they will not be alive in a month. Sink.
10. You Mad Bro? - Most of their cluster is in North-East O45. They look decent, average ABP and average points. Still, I kinda like these guys, but I guess they'll be eaten by one of the more powerful alliances.
11. Gypsy Rising - In North-East O55 they won't have much resistance for now. Their ABP is more than decent, I guess these guys might be our suprise-underdog. For now I say float, not really sure what to expect.
12. The Black Empire - Sister alliance of SeeD and BlaBlaBla. SINK.
Alliances to keep watching:
Odyssey - Good growers, nice ABP for their rank. Also a good average.
Robot Chickens - They've got Flip. Also, good growers, seem to come from a different world.
-=No Mercy=- - Looks like an interesting team with Zero-Sum taking the lead.
Total failures:
Vikings Reborn - Picnic Bunnies have tTaken three of their cities in the day BP ended. Low average, bad BP, bad core etc.
CODE ___ - The joke was fun but either they meant to be a total failure or the leaders totally failed in trying to recruit. I'm not sure where they all went but most of their alliances are either gone or out of the top 100.
I'm always open for a discussion! Tell me when you (dis)agree and why!